Analysis - long term impacts

Analysis - revenue per APU

Let’s take a look at the total revenue per apu for the original revenue, the revenue after increasing the basic education component by 4%, and the revenue after increasing the entire formula by 4%.

The maps below provide the total revenue per APU for each scenario and the shades of color are “binned” by quintile - meaning each bin has 20% of the total public school districts, which is between 65 and 66 districts per bin.

The first thing that jumps out from the maps below is that our most rural districts, particularly along the borders of the state, receive the highest revenue per APU, no matter which scenario.

What we are looking for if there are any shifts/patterns in districts that receive the highest revenue per APU over the course of five years for each scenario. Glancing at these maps shows that there is very little change.

Let’s see if any of the districts shift in the quantiles going from the original to each of the scenarios.

The maps below highlight the districts that shifted quintiles from their original revenue quintile “rank”. There are very few that change.

When increasing the basic education component only, 8 schools shift - 4 move up one quintile while 4 others move down.

When increasing the entire formula 14 districts shift - 7 move up and 7 move down one quintile rank.

Analysis - pct change in revenue per APU

Even though there doesn’t seem to be much change or shift when comparing revenue per APU across all districts, the percentage change might highlight some patterns.

The maps below show the percent increase from the FY22 total revenues for each scenario and they show a pretty clear pattern.

When increasing the basic education component only, the highest percent increases occur in districts with higher property values such as the central lakes regions and the suburbs. However, if the entire formula increases, the highest percentages are in districts with lower property values such as central, western, and southern Minnesota.

To get a clear picture, lets see what districts shift up and down in their quintile rank when comparing the scenario that increases the entire formula vs. only increasing the basic education component.

The chart below shows that there is quite a bit of movement in terms of the quintile rank in pct change between the two scenarios. When comparing quintile ranks from the basic education only scenario with increasing the entire formula, districts in the lakes regions and suburbs drop between 2 and 4 ranks in their quintile while property poor schools increase a similar amount of ranks.